TRENDS
Forex Seasonality Explorer (20-Year)
Identify recurring Institutional Flows.
Select an asset to see which months have historically offered the highest probability returns.
EUR/USD
| MONTH | AVG RETURN | RELIABILITY (WIN RATE) | RATING |
|---|
Why Trade with Seasonality?
Tracking Smart Money Flows
Seasonality exists because large institutions operate on set schedules. Recurring events like Tax Harvesting, Quarter-End Rebalancing, and Holiday Demand create predictable flows of capital at the same time every year.
For example, GBP/USD historically rallies in April. This is widely attributed to the start of the UK tax year and corporate dividend repatriation. Knowing this gives you a "Fundamental Bias" before you even look at the chart.
Reliability (Win Rate) is Key
Average return can be misleading. A month might show a +2% average return because of one massive outlier year (e.g., 2008 Crisis), while the other 19 years were flat or negative.
That is why our tool highlights the Reliability Score. If a pair has closed positive in November for 16 out of the last 20 years (80% Win Rate), that is a statistically significant edge. It suggests a structural reason for the move, not just random variance.
Never trade Seasonality blindly. Use it as a Directional Filter for your technical strategy.
1. The Bias: Check this tool. If EUR/USD has an 80% Bullish reliability in December, your bias is LONG.
2. The Filter: Ignore all Sell signals on your technical chart for the month. Only take Buy signals.
3. The Entry: Wait for a technical trigger (e.g., a Breakout or RSI Oversold) to enter in the direction of the seasonal trend. This aligns your trade with the historical flow of money.